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Paul Vs. Mary

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1:06 am
July 16, 2010


Revenant

Hopelessly Locked In A "Fear Cage"

Lead Investigator

posts 1393

Two psychics have recently hit the big time.  In UCF-style…two enter the octogan and only one walks (or slithers) out.

In one corner, we have Mary from "Mary Knows Best."  It's the jewel of the summer line-up for Sy-Fy.  Every time the ad for it came on, I could almost hear the collective groan from skeptics around the country and from around the world (…would hate to exclude Learjet…Tongue out ).

The hour long show features Mary, a psychic with her own radio show, and how she deals with her life, her family, and her…"gifts."  It's got a "Jon And Kate Plus Eight" vibe with a heavy dose of "Jersey Shore."  Inject a whopping load of "I'm getting a feeling" and you start understanding what a train wreck that this show is going to be.

Can we (skeptics) even review this show?  With snappy editing and broad-stroking generalities like nobody's business…it would be awfully hard to "prove" anything.  Will she submit to actual testing?  Highly doubtful.  Will they show her "misses" when she "cold-reads?"  Not a chance.  Simply…a waste of time.

In the other corner, we have Paul the Octopus.  Also known as the Oracle Octopus, the mystic mollusc, and my favorite…the canny cephalopod.  Going 8 for 8 in his World Cup predictions, he has gained world-wide fame (Mary could only hope for this type of fame).

Of course, with fame comes the death threats.  Many aren't too happy with Paul…even though I'm very unsure of what the Octopus had to do with Germany's sudden lack of scoring ability against Spain.  As a true Oracle…Paul only "sees" the future…he does not command it.  And speaking of seeing the future…

Paul went 8 for 8.  That's pretty good.  Although….the odds on picking 8 straight games are only 255 to 1.  Not really a big deal.  I mean I've participated in office pools picking NFL games.  One has to pick between 13-16 games per week (because of the bye-weeks).  Get 20 to 30 people picking and you'll get a perfect card maybe two or three times a season.  Now, some may argue that people are picking intelligently.  That it isn't random like what Paul does.  First…there is no proof that Paul wasn't picking intelligently ( Tongue out Laughing ).  And two…when Helga from Accounting hits all 16 games because she was the only one to pick the Buc's over the Patriots (because the Buc's have prettier colors)…then I think the random factor may also be in play.

Google Paul the Octopus and you'll find tons of cute little stories.  Spain apparently is trying to obtain Paul to display him.  My advice?  They better act quick.  Paul is 2 and 1/2 years old.  His species has a general life span of 3 years.  So…if Spain does buy him, they better have a "stand-in" Octopus for him or they're going to have thousands of crying children wondering why their favorite Octopus isn't in the tank…

So…back to the original question…who wins in a sanctioned UCF fight between Mary and Paul?  Mary comes out swinging wildly (the cold-reading style of swinging your fists just doesn't work in the octagon).  Paul bides his time, shoots in, takes Mary down, gets her in an Arm Bar and she taps out.  As quick as that…Paul is your winner.  Good luck getting that championship belt on him… Tongue out 

"Skepticism is not a position, it's a process." -Dr Michael Shermer

7:49 am
July 16, 2010


Nosfer

Rotaredom

Moderator

posts 2956

Can we or should we review Mary? That is also a question. I have not seen the show yet and did not record it…is it running yet? I've seen 3.6 minutes of TV in the last week so have not seen the style, editing etc. But if the question is Can? then I would ask what separates this from the other shows. We can review editing (see the last GHA episode where editing comes heavily into play to make the story work)

If the editing is good…we just hone our skills. Sounds like judgement has already been passed on the show and I admit that without even seeing it I'm questioning it, too.

Should we? Is it worth it? Those are additional questions, probably the more important ones to ask. The tendency will probably be to scream "BS" at the thing, but if widespread with no actual evidence…our own credibility can be damaged. "oh it's just those skeptices (denyers as we are commonly being known as) just ripping again. I shall have to watch it at least once to see what it's all about.

Personally I think SciFi should combine their two new shows and have Fact or Fiction investigate Mary. They could even do it in rounds…Survivor Style. Since it appears that that is what their programming is devolving to.

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10:24 am
July 16, 2010


Stephen

San Jose, CA

Admin

posts 589

In a grapple fight Paul has six arms' worth of advantage, plus innate mollusc cunning. I'd bet on him.

I'm not sure if Paul was picking intelligently, but assuming that his… captors? caretakers? two-armed minions?… are football fans with some ability to improve the guesses, they might have biased his results consciously or unconsciously. There is some evidence that octopuses favor one side or the other (they are left-eyed or right-eyed), so Paul might be slightly more likely to choose the food on the right than the left. If a feeder thinks that Spain will win, he could put the Spanish flag on the right that time.

Rev, you claim that Paul isn't controlling the games, but how could we know? Possibly he has a powerful telepathy, capable of controlling the world. Wait a sec… that means…

IA! IA! CTHULHU FHTAGN!

Stephen the Friendly Skeptic

1:10 am
July 17, 2010


Revenant

Hopelessly Locked In A "Fear Cage"

Lead Investigator

posts 1393

First and foremost…an apology.  In my original post, I said "UCF" instead of "UFC (Ultimate Fighting Challenge)."  The reason?  That night, I was playing the NCAA College Football video game and I played against UCF (Central Florida).  So…UCF was still in my head.  So…apologies to the UFC, Dana White (head of the UFC), MMA fans that read this forum and lastly, to Paul the Octopus.  Ok then…

Nosfer asked: "Can we or should we review Mary?"

I watched the first episode and I just don't see a how we can.  It's not a question of "gathering evidence" and disputing "whatever."  Hmmm…oh…think of it in terms of how we treat "Most Haunted."  We really don't discuss it.  There's no point.  Maybe I can stomach a couple of more episodes, but…I don't see how we can objectively discuss it in the same manner as we discuss other shows and topics.

Stephen- Here's a bit more on Paul and how he picked the games:

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_the_Octopus#Potential_biases

It's actually a good read, but really…hard to tell anything from eight runs in an experiment such as that.  Too many variables and not nearly enough data.

Lastly, Stephen said: "Rev, you claim that Paul isn't controlling the games, but how could we know? Possibly he has a powerful telepathy, capable of controlling the world. Wait a sec… that means…"

Man…who do you think is working the strings and about to pull the trigger on the eminent Zombie invasion?  You don't think it's mankind or the "greys" or whatever?  It's ALWAYS been the Octopi.  Man…NEVER trust anything with more than 7 legs!

"Skepticism is not a position, it's a process." -Dr Michael Shermer

9:54 am
July 17, 2010


Nosfer

Rotaredom

Moderator

posts 2956

Revenant said:

Nosfer asked: "Can we or should we review Mary?"

I watched the first episode and I just don't see a how we can.  It's not a question of "gathering evidence" and disputing "whatever."  Hmmm…oh…think of it in terms of how we treat "Most Haunted."  We really don't discuss it.  There's no point.  Maybe I can stomach a couple of more episodes, but…I don't see how we can objectively discuss it in the same manner as we discuss other shows and topics.


Just out of curiousity, what shows do you think we CAN discuss? I'm kind of at a loss at the moment to come up with that answer. Have not seen Fact or Fiction yet, so that's a possibility. GH[I,A] has pretty much gone the way of Most Haunted except that they are still trying to maintain that they are serious about what they do and not a ratings-grabber. Perhaps discussion of that franchise is still worthwhile to counter their claims and point out the trickery and deceit.

GL has some hope, we can still point out the science that they overlook or mis-represent (and for them possibly not deliberately but out of lack of a fuller understanding)

Mary? Well, I will reserve judgment until I actually can watch an episode. I don't know the format etc so hard to say at this point for me. You may be right, may not be worth it, but I'll wait until I see it myself.

GA. Ha! Guess we can point out the quirks and idiodacies…course we might be able to do that with Mary, too. But I think unless we can make definite statements about that one (Mary) that it is in our best interest not to. All of our analysis should stand up to the same level of scrutiny that we, ourselves, apply to the shows originally. If it won't, then we are no better, so yes, I'd rather not say anything than to say something that is not defensible.

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11:55 am
July 17, 2010


Nosfer

Rotaredom

Moderator

posts 2956

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5:12 pm
July 22, 2010


Nosfer

Rotaredom

Moderator

posts 2956

Nosfer said:

Mary? Well, I will reserve judgment until I actually can watch an episode. I don't know the format etc so hard to say at this point for me. You may be right, may not be worth it, but I'll wait until I see it myself.


Well now that I've watched a full 12 minutes of this tripe I can can say that no, we can't review this show, and no we shouldn't even try. SciFi needs to yank the plug on this debacle and now…not after 6 episodes…NOW! (like I just did)

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6:04 pm
July 22, 2010


Leslie

Investigator

posts 157

Why is this show even on syfy? Nosfer, I'm proud of you for making it through 12 whole minutes-I couldn't make up to 10!!

6:29 pm
July 22, 2010


Nosfer

Rotaredom

Moderator

posts 2956

Why is this show even on syfy? Nosfer, I'm proud of you for making it through 12 whole minutes-I couldn't make up to 10!!

I think it might technically have been 11, and I had in fact written 11 at first, but it changed to 12 while I was writing the post and I didn't turn it off until the very end so I had to be very honest and write 12. :) 12 minutes too many, though.

Are we expected to believe that she (like Jason and Grant when they get calls from Kris while "plumbing") are constantly followed by an entourage of cameras just in case she has to make a prediction to someone?

It looks like SciFi's attempt to really break into the Reality world (I see an oxymoron starting to take shape here). Thank goodness it's cable and not broadcast, or if it's rebroadcast it's only minimal…I'd hate to think the signals constituting this show would ever be picked up by an Alien Civilization and used to determine if there is intelligent life here. If they were, I suspected the Tellurians would be mobilizing their starships to come this way and put us out of our miseries!

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1:05 am
July 23, 2010


Revenant

Hopelessly Locked In A "Fear Cage"

Lead Investigator

posts 1393

Really, Nosfer?  Really?

I said in my original post: "Can we (skeptics) even review this show?  With snappy editing and broad-stroking generalities like nobody's business…it would be awfully hard to "prove" anything.  Will she submit to actual testing?  Highly doubtful.  Will they show her "misses" when she "cold-reads?"  Not a chance.  Simply…a waste of time."

Nosfer…you respond with: "Can we or should we review Mary? That is also a question." – Yeah…I kind of mentioned that.  I was admonished in another thread for not thoroughly reading a post of yours.  I get what you mean now. 

Then I get hit with these gems: "Sounds like judgement has already been passed on the show…" and "The tendency will probably be to scream "BS" at the thing, but if widespread with no actual evidence…our own credibility can be damaged. "oh it's just those skeptices (denyers as we are commonly being known as) just ripping again."

Then you actually watch a part of the show and you quote yourself and respond with: "SciFi needs to yank the plug on this debacle and now…not after 6 episodes…NOW!"

So…when I give a mini-review of the show and my opinion…"JUDGEMENT has already been passed"…as if I hadn't given the show any sort of consideration or thought.  As if, somehow, I was rash and impulsive in my assessment of the show.  At least I watched an entire episode before I posted.  Just sayin'…

And the best part….that, in essence…that I'm screaming "BS" at the thing without actual evidence thus damaging OUR OWN credibility.  Wow.  Just…wow.  I write a little fluff piece on a SyFy psychic and an Octopus and suddenly I've lost my mind?  I'm damaging our "credibility (whatever that's worth)" by doing so?  Then you come along, watch 11 or 12 minutes of it, denounce it, and only then can we call it "crap?"  It is only at that point that we aren't damaging our own credibility?  Glad to know where my opinion of anything ranks…

You can not take my word for anything and that's fine.  You can not trust my judgement on a show like "Mary Knows Best (one in which it only takes a rational human being 11 or 12 minutes to ascertain what a piece of schlock it is)" and that's fine too.   But to insinuate the rest of it…not cool, man.  I don't think that I deserved any of that.  Not cool at all…

You're a Mod now…you can delete all of this and lock the thread if you wish.  *sighs*  Maybe I just need a break…

"Skepticism is not a position, it's a process." -Dr Michael Shermer

8:57 am
July 23, 2010


Nosfer

Rotaredom

Moderator

posts 2956

Yes, really. There are at least two separate angles here. One is her supposed psychic ability, which is the aspect where I was admonishing about calling BS without evidence or maybe I should say "support" since it's sometimes hard to cull hard evidence from these shows. I have not made any statement saying that she is or isn't psychic.

Suddenly you've lost your mind? Nope, never said that! You're damaging our credibility? Nope, never said that.

Afterall, you did not make any statement one way or the other about her abilities, either, and I never implied or insinuated that you had. Well you did question whether or not Paul had more but I recognize that for what it was so not going to count it. You weren't (at least I don't think you were) screaming BS about her abilities. You did say it would be hard to review with the editing, not showing misses, generalities, etc, and I acknowledged the editing could be an issue and said:

Mary? Well, I will reserve judgment until I actually can watch an episode. I don't know the format etc so hard to say at this point for me. You may be right, may not be worth it, but I'll wait until I see it myself.

So, at that point of not having seen it I was under the impression this was more like a format we were used to seeing with GH/GHI/GL and the like, I thought there might be a chance of at least picking out the edits. I don't think so now as those are probably among the least of the items. You mentioned those few things that preclude a review, let me add a few more:

Notice certain people had their faces blurred? Notice that some didn't? Wouldn't be because they've signed the release? Big can of worms there. Camera following her like that all the time? Remind anyone of the "Gettin' a phone call from Kris" scenes in GH? ie staged. Notice the various angles of shots shown on the fellow in the dry cleaner (I think that's where it was) Either they have multiple camera crews following her (unlikely) or that was shot in scenes, so much for spontaneity.

Now, the other angle is the one I was hitting last night in my post. That is the show itself. It's style, delivery, the performance, etc. My comments of course are just my opinion on it…as were yours. So where they rank, who knows. Someone may like it and that would be his/her opinion and no less valid than ours. And it appears ours are pretty much in sync now that I've actually watched the show. Not having seen the Jon and Kate you referenced, I sure didn't think this was going to be something that should have been on E! rather than SciFi!

There is a big difference between ripping her psychic abilities (which, again, neither of us have done) and ripping the show format, style, and/or presentation.

So yes, I think there is still room for damage if we go out and just blast her claimed abilities without proof. But neither of us have done that.

The not cool thing, though, is that I'd hope after all this time you'd realize that I'm not the type of person who's going to delete or lock a thread just because someone disagrees with me.

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12:41 pm
July 23, 2010


Revenant

Hopelessly Locked In A "Fear Cage"

Lead Investigator

posts 1393

Taking the high road or just sleight of hand…a bit of misdirection?

Nosfer said in post 2: "If the editing is good…we just hone our skills. Sounds like judgement has already been passed on the show and I admit that without even seeing it I'm questioning it, too."

Notice that word "too" at the end?  As if we both hadn't seen it…yet, for some reason "I" was passing judgement.  This is where the problem lies.  For some reason, you just assumed that I hadn't seen the show.  Notice the time and date of my post.  Of course I had seen the show.  How else could I describe it?  Why would I talk about the show in such a manner without seeing it?

Yet, you ignored this aspect.  That's why the "judgement has already been passed" line was written.  That's also what prompted you to continue on to the next paragraph and virtually warn of us the dangers of what would happen if we gave in to our "tendency to shout 'BS' without actual evidence."  Let's just be honest…you literally thought that I was just spouting off on a show that I hadn't even seen.  Why else write what you did and in the manner that you did?

So post 11 was nicely written…but in no way, shape, or form is that what you meant in post 2.  Nice try, but that wasn't the intention or the result of post 2.  That…is what angered me.  So thanks for post 11, it was a lovely read…but it didn't solve or explain anything.  Please re-read post 2 again and then explain again how that isn't a personal jab at me.  Seriously.  How can I not take it that way?  Can you seriously not see how I'm viewing it?  Really?

"Skepticism is not a position, it's a process." -Dr Michael Shermer

1:23 pm
July 23, 2010


Nosfer

Rotaredom

Moderator

posts 2956

Post 2 was written sitting on a bench waiting for an airport shuttle so I apologize if it wasn't the most elegant. Course I didn't think you'd parse every syllable. Yes, judgment had already been passed and I think in a few cases even before the show had aired. And I stand by that analysis. Maybe/Probably not by you as regards the psychic abilities of Mary, but posts I was reading that morning were already calling her and all psychics frauds and I think some of those were written even before it had aired.

Judgment already starting to be passed. Not about show format, but about actual abilities and that's where the danger comes in. Just because it was in a thread you started doesn't mean it was all in response to your views.

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4:20 pm
July 23, 2010


Revenant

Hopelessly Locked In A "Fear Cage"

Lead Investigator

posts 1393

Nosfer said: "Course I didn't think you'd parse every syllable."

Hmmm…either I don't read your posts thoroughly enough anymore or…I parse every syllable.  Just can't win.  Funny how that works out.  I guess using these jabs at me don't work all that well when you go to opposite extremes like that.    

"Yes, judgment had already been passed and I think in a few cases even before the show had aired. And I stand by that analysis."

Well, this only proves that I personally have little to no psychic ability.  I am unaware of any threads or posts about "Mary Knows Best" here at SV.  If you are talking about other sites, threads, posts…thanks for referencing those by either name or link.  I have no clue what you're using as a basis for your "analysis."  Without said psychic ability…how would I or anyone else know what you're talking about or referencing when you talk about "judgment" or when you heed the warning to all skeptics (or maybe just me…who knows?) about screaming "BS" without actual evidence?  I simply refuse to believe that you can't see this.  

"Just because it was in a thread you started doesn't mean it was all in response to your views."

Yes, silly me for thinking that your post to my original thread topic was in any way a response to my views or anything that I was talking about.  How could I ever have mistaken something like that?

"Post 2 was written sitting on a bench waiting for an airport shuttle so I apologize if it wasn't the most elegant."

Fine.  If that's what you want to go with…fine.  You don't want to admit that you're wrong, fine.  But next time, if you want to call me out for anything…then just call me out.  Simple as that.  If you think I'm rushing to judgement or whatever, then just say it.  No need for 800 word essays on psychic ability when we both know that that wasn't the problem.  Feel free to respond but man…I'm done with this.

*Side Note- Apologies to those reading the end of this thread.  It started out innocently enough.  But it just ended up in a downward spiral of suck.  Well…life is like that sometimes.  Ooo…wait…hope I wasn't rushing to any sort of judgement there.  (…and further down the spiral it goes…)

"Skepticism is not a position, it's a process." -Dr Michael Shermer

4:29 pm
July 23, 2010


Nosfer

Rotaredom

Moderator

posts 2956

Here is an example of the comments that were in my mind when I made the post, these were over at SciFi. The term skeptic or even hard skeptic was thrown around in a few of the threads these are from. I apologize for the language within but I've kept them "as is" You will note the dates and times.

14-Jul 06:16PM
The commercials are very irritating and all psychics are utter frauds. Real sci-fi shows don't claim to be real and are for pure entertainment. Pyschics are in it purely for profit and pray on the weak.

15-Jul 06:04AM
maybe she should have known those burgers and pizzas would fatten her up.. or maybe she couldn't read the food's mind?

14-Jul 07:14PM
I have never been more annoyed by commercials for a show as I have with this one. Pyschics are ALL frauds and hearing this lady say "hello I'm a psychic" every commercial break is the most irritating thing ever!

Pretending you are a psychic and preying on other peoples weaknesses is just plain cruel and borderline criminal.

15-Jul 03:30AM
and yes, psychics are bogus… either that or tin foil hats really work..

04-Jul 05:06PM
I just can't help but wonder, if this fat irritating woman was really psychic, why didn't she know that people would hate her show and think she's just straight up full of B.S.?

07-Jul 11:18AM
The only "ability" any of these psychics have is a keen enough sense of observation to get people to believe broad generalites about themselves.

You will notice most of these frauds are like politicians or used car salesman. They are super friendly and, with hopes, they will get you talking…..the rest is easy.

Soon the mark is dragging out his wallet.

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