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Fact or Faked, S01E04: Predator;Red Sky at Night

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4:25 pm
August 3, 2010


Nosfer

Rotaredom

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posts 2954

Since three or four of us have already started discussing this set of episodes, I figured it would be good to put this out so as to keep things closer on target.

Looks like at least the Navy will be happy with this week's episode.  But, whether the rest of us will take "Delight" in this pair of cases will have to remain to be seen.   The teases for these two episodes have the teams investigating videos of a predator caught on video in Dartmoor in the United Kingdom, and of a large triangular craft spotted in the air over El Cajon, California.

MonsterQuest treated us to the case of the Beast of Exmoor which is located a bit north of the Dartmoor National Park in the southeast of England.  Exmoor National Park starts only about 20 miles north of the boundary of Dartmoor so it is not unreasonable to imagine that the beasts are the same, or that the same creature is being mistaken for each of these beasts.

One set of example photos of the Dartmoor Beast (not to be confused with the Charity March/Hike Event) can be seen here at ForteanTimes:

http://www.forteantimes.com/strangedays/cryptozoology/546/dartmoor_mystery_beast.html

This article is from 2007. This is now 2010 and the episode of FoF should be interesting to watch to see what their take is and whether or not some of these photos are used.  Given that it turned out to be someone’s pet…Revenant provided a link to that in last week’s episode discussion http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-472909/Thats-Beast-Dartmoor–pet-dog.html …I suspect, then, that it will be more like video such as this (or this actual video) which is extremely interesting…at least, it’s interesting in how bad the focus is:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y87IJ4-Rw-c

This one appears to be from 2008 based upon its posting date so after the admission about the dog.  Although it’s out of focus, I can see that the tail doesn’t quite match that of a Newfoundland.  It seems much longer and more “cord-like”.  The animal seems “front-heavy” too.   More like that of a boar or lion, and the tail does resemble a lion’s somewhat.

****************************

Now, what about the large triangular craft over El Cajon?  It appears that El Cajon has had its share of sightings.  One of those was on 01 Jan 2010.  Suspicious date.  Be sure to read the Note and Update on this page which has a description:

http://www.ufosnw.com/sighting_reports/2010/elcajonca01012010/elcajonca01012010.htm

Is 2010 too recent for FoF to be investigating it, though?  They seem to go for much older stories.  This one may be more likely, being almost a year before the one above:

http://www.ufosnw.com/sighting_reports/2009/elcajonca02242009/elcajonca02242009.htm

There seemed to be a few such sightings around that date, with about a week later happening on the same morning as a failed launch from Vandenburg, although supposedly did not occur until 40 minutes after the sighting.  Some of the videos show three red lights in triangular form and since the title of this week’s is Red Sky at Night it will probably center around those particular videos…hopefully not the hoaxed one, though!  But since the hoaxer was able to emulate the three lights, some big steps toward replication would already have been done.

For a listing of UFO reports near El Cajon, see here…note that the last three take place decades in the future :)

http://www.ufomaps.com/city/El+Cajon

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12:46 am
August 4, 2010


Revenant

Hopelessly Locked In A "Fear Cage"

Lead Investigator

posts 1393

Nosfer said: "This one appears to be from 2008 based upon its posting date so after the admission about the dog.  Although it’s out of focus, I can see that the tail doesn’t quite match that of a Newfoundland.  It seems much longer and more “cord-like”.  The animal seems “front-heavy” too.   More like that of a boar or lion, and the tail does resemble a lion’s somewhat."

Good call on the video.  I think that it is the one from the FoF promo.  If not, I wouldn't be opposed to throwing it over in the Crypto section.

The still pictures featured in both Fortean Times and the Daily Mail…I'm pretty comfortable with a Newfie.  Great dogs.  Big dogs.  And I don't see how or why one doesn't believe that it's a Newfoundland.  I'm not seeing anything to suggest that it isn't.

However…the video is strange.  I've watched it plenty of times now.  As bizarre as it sounds, I keep going back to a rabbit/hare/jackrabbit.  When you say that the animal is "front-heavy,"  I would agree in a way.  That is to say that the back-end is light or scrawny by comparison.  To me at least, it looks like it's "kicking out" those back legs…like a jackrabbit.  And the front…are those huge jackrabbit ears flopping around?  Not sure.  As for the tail…I'm very uncertain if I'm actually seeing a long tail or it's just an "illusion" of a long tail.  If a hare, the hare is going left to right.  If it's left leg hangs a bit longer in the air than the right leg, it would appear to be a tail in such a fuzzy and out of focus shot.

Without knowing anything about the video (where it was taken, who took it, any sort of scale, etc) and just guessing…I'd get a zoologist who knows their rabbits/hares/jackrabbits and start from there.  At worst and I'm completely wrong, at least we would be ruling out the smallest thing that it could  be.  We would have some sort of scale to work with.

Of course…it could always be a Jackalope… Tongue out

"Skepticism is not a position, it's a process." -Dr Michael Shermer

6:32 am
August 4, 2010


blinddog

Special Agent Zombie Elimination Agency

Moderator

posts 857

Expert on rabbits/hares/jackrabbits?

Elmer Fudd?

Double tap to the head. Don't become Undead.

7:06 am
August 4, 2010


Nosfer

Rotaredom

Moderator

posts 2954

Scale, too, is a bit of a problem on this one.  The focus doesn't help at all.  I've tried slowing the video down but because of the focus and the original frame-rate I can't say for sure whether the extension is a tail or a leg.  It does go up pretty high in one scene but whether it's too high for a leg to kick I can't say.  The thicker front part _appears_ to have a bit more coverage than flat-back ears would have but again, focus and lighting make that a hard call. 

It appears very dark, but I think the animal is between the sun and the videographer so that can really play havoc with coloring and tone.

I have (somewhere) a photo I took about a year ago of a jack-rabbit running, I was only able to get one or two shots (I think two with only one semi-keeper) and his ears were a very distinct V above his head.  Course, that was an American Jackrabbit, not sure how they act across the pond lol

I _do_ see what could be horns at one point in the video but it's hard to say…our evidence was so much clearer, though, so there was no doubt about The Discovery…whereas this video still leaves a lot open to interpretation :)

Edited: Some video of a rabbit running

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGYGVHNRsf8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nlOMJPcvrEE&NR=1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qofFMpAnMTc

I can't seem to see any with them running with ears flat, though, but I know I've seen them like that in the wild…although I may be recalling them in a seated or crouched position with the ears flat.  None of the three videos above really show the rabbit flat-out-hauling, though.  Will have to dig through my photos.

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10:09 am
August 4, 2010


Revenant

Hopelessly Locked In A "Fear Cage"

Lead Investigator

posts 1393

All good points and thanks for the video.  The second video seems to "kind of" show those back legs really coming off the ground.  In the Dartmoor video, I cannot tell if the ground is even or not.  If not, that may play into the movement of the creature, especially if the creature is small.  A couple of other things came to mind as well…

First, I began taking a look at different species of rabbits and hares and I ran into a couple of problems.  The biggest…my threshold for rabbit/hare-picture-looking is shockingly quite low.  I'm more of a predator guy as opposed to a prey guy.  The other problem is that I was only looking at indigenous species to Europe.  Upon thinking about that…it's not good enough.  There's no reason to rule out any species (escaping from zoo, escaping from private collection, escaped pet, etc).  And with that in mind…I stopped looking at different species.  I'm just not that into it.  I'm neither a zoologist or an Elmer Fudd clone… 

I did, however, see enough differences between the species from the US, Europe, and Asia to mention that using video clips strictly of American rabbits/hares may not show what we're seeing in the Dartmoor video.  That was another problem that I was running into.  The best stuff that I was finding was based upon only American species.  Then again, I will admit that I didn't look all that hard.

The other point…typical complaint of the length of the video.  Although I appreciate the clip of "only" the creature, I would have really liked to have seen how the video first started (if not turned on right at the appearance of the creature) and also, and the killer, where the animal goes.  How many of these weird, crypto videos just cut off for no apparent reason?

In this particular case, seeing it leave, to me at least, is very important.  If it's the size of a lion or a large cat or even a large boar…we should be able to see it run off.  It's hard to tell much about the terrain in the video, but it doesn't appear to be a very heavily wooded area and if there are hills, they don't seem very substantial.  If this is the case, why don't we see it make it's exit?  However…if the animal is small, like a hare, and it hits some tall grass…then it's gone and there's nothing left to tape which further strengthens the argument for something smaller like a hare.

And again…without any sort of information beyond a ten second Youtube clip…I'm only speculating.  I'm just using my own "rule of thumb" with crypto-videos, which is always start small.  I always begin looking at the creature as something small and then back-track and look for indications or evidence that the creature actually has some size.  In this Dartmoor video, as Nosfer said, there is no scale.  So just playing odds, the odds are better that the creature is smaller and more common as opposed to something huge and exotic. 

In any event…this FoF episode should be interesting… 

EDIT:  Oh, and if anyone else is seeing something different in that video…please make your case.  I'm really interested in hearing different views.

"Skepticism is not a position, it's a process." -Dr Michael Shermer

10:51 am
August 4, 2010


Nosfer

Rotaredom

Moderator

posts 2954

I'm looking at the zoom-back that is done in the video, it does give an indication that there is some bit of distance which makes me thing this might be at least a medium size animal.  It has a pretty good leaping ability which is not something I've really heard of in a boar/pig.  Rabbits are good at leaping although I'm wondering about the size now, when I get a bit more time I'll see if I can do some scaling based on the zooming that is seen although there may be too many unknowns.  Yep, I love the "snippet" treatment we're given.  I can understand an abrupt start to the footage but I would have been following that thing until I couldn't see it anymore and then I would have filmed more incase it popped back out.

Interestingly another "paranormal" video from the same poster, though:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Udz0SPZ120M

The poster's comment for the Dartmoor video is: "spotted this animal while filming shots of dartmoor for a video competition. no idea what it is!!"

Video competition?  If his focusing techinique is as we see here, I suspect he came out fairly low in scoring!  Granted, seeing something like this gets you a little hyped up when filming, but auto-focus is a wonderful invention :)

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11:21 am
August 4, 2010


Nosfer

Rotaredom

Moderator

posts 2954

If we consider the other half of the show's title…Faked (vs simple misindentification) what of the possibility of taking a dog out and filming it running just a bit out of focus. What dogs have the physical characteristics and mannerisms of running that we see here?

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12:21 pm
August 4, 2010


Revenant

Hopelessly Locked In A "Fear Cage"

Lead Investigator

posts 1393

Nosfer said: "I'm looking at the zoom-back that is done in the video, it does give an indication that there is some bit of distance which makes me thing this might be at least a medium size animal."

Yeah, maybe.  So hard to tell.  I think the very first thing to establish…do you believe that the guy taking the video is standing?  From the clip, I can't be sure if he's standing, kneeling or sitting.  It would certainly help if we knew anything about the angle of the video.

Also…at the very end of the clip…at the right edge of the clip, is that a road or a trail or possibly a stream?  From what we can see at the very, very end of the cllip, there doesn't seem to be any sort of obstruction.  In fact, the opposite seems true.  If the creature hits the trail/stream/whatever, we may be able to tell what it is.  So again…why does the video end?  One has to wonder if it was intentionally cropped, especially when the term of "video competition" is issued (good job on finding that gem…).

Nosfer asked: "What dogs have the physical characteristics and mannerisms of running that we see here?"

Hard to say due to multi-breed dogs (mutts Smile ).  I think the key for me is the top of the head and neck area.  It isn't clear.  Something is "flopping" around and whether it's ears or hair…completely unknown.  So, if I was going dog…I'd go with a floppy dog ear with curled hair (to give it more "substance" in a shadowed form like we see in the video).  So, something like this:

http://www.nextdaypets.com/directory/breeds/1100014/

Long floppy ears, long "cord-like" tail and relatively small (around 30lbs).  However…the gate is completely wrong.  Hmmm…I don't know.  When I watch the video, the hind end comes way up and then the legs kick out.  Most dogs don't run that way, they aren't designed like that.  The only one that comes to mind is the Saluki (it's spine is a bit different than other breeds).  But as you can tell from the picture…no way is that creature in the video a Saluki (Laughing):

http://www.nextdaypets.com/directory/breeds/1100228/

Hmmm…I'll think about it and figure out if there's another breed that might match that video… 

"Skepticism is not a position, it's a process." -Dr Michael Shermer

12:58 pm
August 4, 2010


Nosfer

Rotaredom

Moderator

posts 2954

I'm about 99.9% sure that this is the lake we see in the background:

http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&ll=50.375303,-4.869604&spn=0.01144,0.019999&t=h&z=16

He is filming from an area maybe 1000 to 1500 feet northeast of there. There are several trails that match the configuration. The angle of filming would match the sun lowering in the western or southwestern sky. I'm trying to match the angle and distance in Google Earth but the resolution isn't as good when I get down near the ground.

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1:21 pm
August 4, 2010


Nosfer

Rotaredom

Moderator

posts 2954

For starts, set yourself on the ground in Google Earth at 50.3771 -4.8692 I'm not sure that's where he was, but some things like the angle, the shape of the lake, and the road at the end of the pan are situated reasonably close. If your GE is in DMS, you can go to Tools and then Options to change your display to Decimal Degrees.

Edited: BTW, for the record this is actually only a THREE-second clip. After the first sequence, the whole thing is slow-mo'ed again at about half-frame rate to give us the other 6+ seconds for a total of about 10 seconds. This HAS to be an excerpt from a larger clip.

Went and checked SciFi and dug up the preview. The preview shows only a fraction of a second, but it looks like this IS the video they examine and it looks like it IS a red-triangle for the second part…good, I won't have to move a ton of posts :)

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8:43 pm
August 4, 2010


hyacinth

Investigator

posts 122

Episode 8/19 

The Caretaker/Cutter – Fact or Faked: Paranormal Files

A Civil War soldier's ghost brings the team to Indiana; cattle mutilations in Colorado are probed.

12:26 am
August 5, 2010


Revenant

Hopelessly Locked In A "Fear Cage"

Lead Investigator

posts 1393

If not a rabbit/hare or a dog…maybe…a goat?

http://creationwiki.org/Wild_goat

Why throw in the wild goat?  I was looking for common things already found in England.  And perhaps something that, as Americans, we might not be familiar with or instantly recognize.

Yet, at full disclosure…I do not have any knowledge of how a wild goats run.  Does it look anything like the creature in the video in a dead sprint?  Does a wild goat even run in a dead sprint?  No clue.  It seems that I have a complete and utter lack of knowledge pertaining to goats…especially wild goats from England…

Wild boars have also been mentioned.  Here's a quick view of them:

http://www.britishwildboar.org.uk/

Um…I don't like the match-up to the video.  Even young or malnourished…the body just doesn't seem to match up all that well. 

Lastly…sheep…:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herdwick_sheep

Perhaps something like that?  I don't know.  There are many varieties of sheep.  Does one particular species fit the bill for the video?  We would need someone much more experienced in identifying sheep than me.

So…we have rabbit/hare, a dog, sheep, wild boar, and wild goats.  Anyone want to throw anything else in?     

"Skepticism is not a position, it's a process." -Dr Michael Shermer

5:43 am
August 5, 2010


Nosfer

Rotaredom

Moderator

posts 2954

I'm going to throw a lion back into the mix as well since there apparently were reports of lions there (escapees?) about 10 years ago in the late 90s and form-wise, a lion running is a pretty good match. Not sure about size but then we don't really know what the size is. There are some pretty dark lions, too, and then if you consider sun angle.

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9:30 am
August 5, 2010


Revenant

Hopelessly Locked In A "Fear Cage"

Lead Investigator

posts 1393

That's right, I forgot about the choice of lion.  A crypto favorite, especially it seems in England.  They love their big cat stories and sightings. 

Is what we're seeing the the video a male lion?  I don't know, maybe.  Without any sort of scale, I'd throw it on the pile of guesses.  However…the lion is a keystone species.  We're not talking about a slick and stealthy leopard or jaguar.  We're talking about a male lion who would probably just bull-doze it's way through sheep and whatever else it saw.  I think we'd see a path of destruction.  Follow the path and you've found your male lion.

Kind of like that MQ episode where they we trying to make the case that Cave Bears (think of a Grizzly on steroids) were still alive (they went extinct 27,000 years ago) in Alaska.  Something like that…it's not hiding very well.  Tracking it, like a male lion in England, would be kind of easy, just follow the carnage.

And if it turns out to be a lion somehow, how lucky is that guy that the lion just didn't turn on him?  Being alone with a lion out in a field only armed with a camera…no thank you.

But upon thinking about it, I think that they will try to make a case for the lion or at least a big cat.  That's sexy.  That's sensational.  That's cool.  A jackrabbit, a goat or another dog?  Not so much although a bit more likely.

My only hope for the show is that they actually show the full video.  That might give us a fighting chance at figuring this out.  Also, I reserve the right to outright blast FoF if at least two credible zoologists aren't given the chance to view the video if there's still some question about it (ie. we can't just see what it is from the full video or the guy who took the footage just owns up to what it is).

"Skepticism is not a position, it's a process." -Dr Michael Shermer

1:39 pm
August 5, 2010


Nosfer

Rotaredom

Moderator

posts 2954

I've seen footage of lions going for the kill that looked quite similar to that, though I've never seen any of one just tromping through the savannah at that gait! I've also seen bulls in a similar style as well as buffalo, though the head didn't look right for a buffalo (the body curvature looked similar, though) But again, in both cases, there is usually something going on like a trampling or a stampede and not just out strolling through the glen!

Yes, a lion might leave a trail of destruction, but we have no reason to believe that this creature captured on video is anything more than a chance viewing and it doesn't necessarily have to be what everyone else is seeing everytime they come across some unknown creature. It is still, admittedly, unlikely. Ponies were brought up one place I was looking but someone had done some comparisons and the back curvature wasn't a match. I wouldn't throw it out, though…ponies do have a bit of a mane, though I think a longer neck that what we see here.

I spent quite a while yesterday researching my local rabbit population and they like to sit or lay with their ears flat back, but the second they start to move the ears popped up like a semaphore flag and continued to stay up even when they started running rather than just their little hop-walks. I tried some video but the darn things would not do anything while I was filming and I wasn't going to try to spook them since they seem to like hanging out near my place. I did get a bunch of "cute bunny nose twitching footage" though lol I will caveat this with the fact that I was only observing one particular species and a rather small sample set of that, too.

Well, in a little over 5 hours we'll get to see what the "experts" come up with….

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7:46 pm
August 5, 2010


hyacinth

Investigator

posts 122

Did I hear Jael right ? 20000 new species discovered each year ?

7:50 pm
August 5, 2010


Nosfer

Rotaredom

Moderator

posts 2954

Just a few thoughts:

  1. A boar/cat hybrid? Huh? Is that even POSSIBLE?
  2. The green room was too restrictive to allow the animals to get up to speed.
  3. They tested ONE dog and dismissed all subsequent breeds of dog as a result?
  4. The video was shot near sunset (as best as I can determine) yet they go out in pitch blackness?
  5. They assumed large size animal (I suspect it was at least medium size) but they should still have looked at smaller animals and considered distance/scale. Even with my reservations about the ears, a jackrabbit or the local variety should have been tested to see what it looked like.
  6. A boar/cat hybrid? Or did I already mention this one???? lol
  7. I get the impression that they are taking the animal seen in the video as being the same as all the other sightings and not possibly a unique case.
  8. Apparently the entire video lasts only 3 seconds…they did not question why it stops there, nor consider the road issue that Revenant brought up.
  9. They were showing the animal too high up on the background when they merged the green screen. The animal in the video is partly obscured by a hill or mound so that the full feet are not seen. This would effect how the gait etc is seen.
  10. A boar/cat hybrid?

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9:12 pm
August 5, 2010


Nosfer

Rotaredom

Moderator

posts 2954

Oh, and the guy at the end of the UFO segment after their balloon and flare experiment was a really good match:

"I believe that maybe there are some triangular UFOs our there but in this case it was just a hoax" The whole purpose was to determine if it was a UFO or a hoax…and then he admits that he believes that they (triangular UFOs) may exist (regardless of the experiment). So, if he believes in triangular craft, then why couldn't there be a triangular craft with 3 red lights? I don't think he can have it both ways since a triangular craft with red lights could look exactly the same…the helicopter experiment proves that it could be a craft, and if the UFO were silent…

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10:01 pm
August 5, 2010


Revenant

Hopelessly Locked In A "Fear Cage"

Lead Investigator

posts 1393

Wow…just wow…

Since Nosfer did such an excellent job in the write-up of the last episode, I shall refrain from commenting too much until he posts on this one.  Just…two quick things…

First…when one wants to find a monster, one will.  The tracker explains that a fox, a dog, or a large cat killed the sheep.  Austin, wide-eyed, "It had to be HUGE."  Yes…or…a fox or dog.  The tracker then explains how a fox or dog probably killed the sheep in one location and dragged it down the hill.  Ben exclaims "I don't know what can do that."  Um…a fox or a dog.  When out in the dark, they hear a noise.  Austin describes it as a growl.  Maybe.  Then when telling the group…it becomes "roaring."  It's like they weren't hearing or responding to what they were being told or actually seeing.  Like I said…when one wants to find a monster, one will.

The other thing…good to hear that a boar/cat hybrid is possible.  I look forward to reading that scientific paper.  Ground-breaking stuff that is….or…you know…complete and utter nonsense… Laughing 

"Skepticism is not a position, it's a process." -Dr Michael Shermer

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